Aircargopedia Newsblast: February 2021!
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16th February 2021  

Dear Air Cargo Professional:

Disruptive Impact of AI on Freight Transportation Business Operations. Read this article by Samrat Barari, CEO, Sunflower Technologies to analyses the key trends and applications of artificial intelligence.

Know more about the Airline Profits that have decoupled from the cost of fuel by William Farrell, Ph.D. Professor of Management, Vaughn College

In more World Air Cargo news, LGSTX Services Wins U.S. Postal Service Contract For Orlando Sort Center. dnata further enhances safety and efficiency in dangerous goods handling

Dubai forms Vaccine Logistics Alliance to expedite global distribution of COVID-19 vaccines through the emirate to developing countries
  DJ Ghosh

D.J. Ghosh
President & Publisher
”The Complete Encyclopedia for the Air Cargo Professional & Investor”


Paying the Freight: Cargo's Wild Ride in 2021

The news is out: the worldwide supply chain is clogged, and demand for all modes is "off the wall". Every day will be peak season in 2021.

Expensive, yes: but society owes a debt of gratitude to the international cargo industry for keeping us all as close to normal (whatever that means now!) as possible in these difficult times.

The COVID crisis will subside, but geopolitical shifts and the search for risk mitigation in international commerce will persist, putting unprecedented demands on Supply Chain Management for the future.

We live in interesting times.

Peter Canellis

Peter Canellis
Professor of Management
Vaughn College of Aeronautics and Technology

Disruptive Impact of AI on Freight Transportation Business Operations

This study analyses the key trends and applications of artificial intelligence in the freight transportation industry by mode of transport i.e. road, rail, air, and ocean freight transportation. This research also analyses the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence on freight transportation business operations and discusses its adoption prospects until 2025.

With increased trade flow, the fleet population in freight transportation has become denser, and expectations of customers have evolved beyond recognition, resulting in complex transport operations, requiring operational flexibility from freight operators. Human errors in operations, underutilized assets, low workforce productivity, inefficient operational planning, inability to match supply with demand, and trimmed profit margins are key prevailing concerns with freight operators.

The emergence of digital technologies and the rapid technological advancements in digitization have transformed the business and operational landscape of the global freight transportation industry. It is essential for freight operators to embrace such operational complexity and evolve by adopting technologies to turn complexity into an advantage.

Today, the world is connected more than ever, and the growth of data generation has been exponential with smart devices and process automation. Data-driven insights help freight operators move forward and gain a competitive advantage over their peers. Artificial intelligence enables freight operators to harness data more effectively for actionable insights.

Artificial intelligence-powered systems in conjunction with other digital technologies such as internet of things and big data analytics utilize data to its full potential to anticipate events for freight operators, aiding them to avoid risks and create innovative solutions. Machine learning algorithms based on neural networks powered by artificial intelligence would unlock multiple benefits for companies operating in the freight transportation industry.

AI brings changes to the supply chain with autonomous vehicles, helping fleet operators reduce operating cost with and fuel consumption and plan optimized routes for service. The freight operators that are enhancing their capabilities with artificial intelligence are reaping its benefits by increasing efficiency with predictive intelligence. Artificial intelligence also enriches the relationship between the shipper and carrier with personalized service offerings.

Advanced sensor fusion with artificial intelligence supports the integration of smart infrastructure and operating assets and the freight operators in the development of connected freight ecosystem, aiding autonomous fleet management. The transformation of the logistics industry due to artificial intelligence is imperative in the near future; however, the readiness and openness of freight operators for an AI-based data-driven environment will determine how well this industry copes with challenges.

Samrat Barari

Samrat Barari,
CEO, Sunflower Technologies, US & Canada

Airbridge banner

Airline Profits have decoupled from the cost of fuel

The relationship between fuel prices and airline profitability is well “known” with the belief in the press and among airline managers well documented. (See the literature review for several examples). Fuel is a substantial airline operating cost amounting to about 20% of operating expenses, its price is quite volatile, and it cannot be directly controlled by the carrier. To determine the impact of fuel prices on profits we conducted a series of linear and quadratic regressions comparing fuel prices and airline profits over two time periods, 1990-1999 and 2000 to the present. We learned that fuel prices have had little relationship to profits in the last 20 or 21 years. We conducted the analyses two different ways, using the data as presented by the FAA in current dollars of the reporting year as well as in constant 2015 dollars to mitigate the possible impact of inflation on the results. We used quarterly data as presented by the FAA and annual data in the event that industry seasonality might mask the impact of fuel prices. Annual data is not reported here because the results were in no way materially different than the quarterly analysis. Regressions reported here cover the period Q1 2000 through Q4 2019. The same analysis was done for the period Q1 2000 through Q3 2020, but not reported here due to the debilitating effects of coronavirus on the industry during 2020. Fuel prices were below the average for the 20-year period and losses over those three quarters were more than any full year except 2004, strengthening the results inappropriately.

General and Business press comments
The business press and the airline associations seem to believe that fuel prices are still a key determinant of airline profitability as noted in the following articles from several publications.

In January of 2016, Los Angeles Times reporter, Hugo Martin (Marn, 2016), reported “The nation's airlines are reporting soaring 2015 profits largely because of sinking fuel prices…”. [Note: fuel prices continued to decline in 2016 by about 21% while airline profits declined by over 40%]

Christopher Jasper in Bloomberg in December 2016 reports “Global airline earnings are set to suffer their first annual decline in six years after reaching a record in 2016 as higher oil prices clip margins, according to the industry’s main trade group…” (Jasper, 2016) [note fuel prices rose by about 16.5% in 2017 and profits rose by 7.5%]

Similarly, the Financial Times (March 20, 2012) reports “Rising fuel prices are expected to drag airline profit margins down to razor thin levels this year, the industry’s global trade body has warned as it cut its forecast for the sector’s annual profits by $500m…” (unknown, Fuel prices put pressure on airline profits, 2012). [Note: fuel prices were modestly higher in 2112 than 2111 by 3.5% and profits were down from $1.4 billion to $364 million or about 74%. In 2013 went back down 4% and profits soared to $12.7 billion or 34 times the 2012 profits. In these three years fuel prices were the highest and the third and fourth highest fuel prices in the 20-year period]

In USA Today, January 12, 2016 Bart Jansen reports “The airlines benefited last year from low oil prices, full planes, and growing fees, according to bureau [Airlines for America] statistics.” (Jansen, 2016). [Note: fuel prices in 2015 were substantially below those for 2014 by about 35% and profits more than tripled from $8.4 billion to $26.4 billion. However, fuel prices further declined in 2016 by another 21% and profits declined to $15.6 billion]

Macquarie Securities analyst Douglas McNeill (McNeill, 2016) suggested that lower fuel prices could increase profits but could also cause capacity expansion which would lower air fares and cause profits to erode quoted in (author unknown, Impact of crude oil price on aviation industry. [Note that for US airlines profits declined in 2016 as described in the USA Today reference above]

If fuel prices drive airline profits, there should be a significant negative correlation between fuel price and those profits. Therefore, our hypotheses are:
H0: the correlation between fuel prices and airline profits is >= 0
H1: the correlation between fuel prices and airline profits is <0

All data for this study was collected from FAA Form 41 schedule P12 and P12 A ( Air Carrier Financial : Schedule P-1.2, Sum: 98990 – Net Income, Prot or Loss (-) (000) by quarter for [year], n.d.) (Net Income (in Thousands of dollars $000) All US Carriers – all Regions (2000-present), n.d.) (Airline Fuel Cost and Consumpon (U.S. Carriers – Scheduled) January 2000-September2020, n.d.) (Airline Fuel Cost and Consumpon historical: 1977-1999, n.d.) or from IATA publication (unknown, Fact Sheet – Fuel, Industry Economics Performance – Forecast Table (IATA Economics), Updated 1/2021, n.d.).

We analyzed the data several ways using regression analysis. We calculated a best fit linear regression for the period 2000 to 2019 comparing average quarterly fuel price and US airline profits as presented in FAA form 41. We did the same thing for the period 1990-1999 using annual data from the FAA because that was all that was available. We then did the same for both time analysis using constant dollars to adjust for inflation. Lastly we used quadratic regression, fitting a quadratic function to both the reported figures and the constant dollar figures for 2000-2019

Case 1 - 2000-2019 using fuel prices and profits as reported by FAA
Since 2000 the relationship between fuel prices and airline earnings is not strong enough to be seen in a linear regression. The proportion of the variation in earnings represented by fuel price is less than 1%. We fail to reject the null hypothesis that the correlation between fuel prices and airline earnings is > or = to 0. Figure 1 presents the 80 quarterly data points and the best fit linear equation.

Scatter diagram of fuel price vs. airline earnings
Figure 1
Scatter diagram of fuel price vs. airline earnings, 2000-2019, US carriers current dollars With least squares regression line

Case 2 - US carriers 1990-1999 – Fuel pries and airline profits as reported by the FAA For this time period we have adequate information to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis that during this time there was a significant negative correlation between fuel prices and airline earnings, or equivalently, airlines were generally more profitable in times of low fuel prices than in times of high fuel prices. See figure 2

Scatter diagram of fuel price vs. airline earnings
Figure 2
Scatter diagram of fuel price vs. airline earnings, 1990-1999, US carriers current dollars with least squares regression line

Case 3 - US carriers 2000-2019 – using constant dollars
As in the current dollar analysis, the relationship between fuel prices and airline earnings is non- existent over this period. We fail to reject the null hypothesis that the correlation between fuel prices and airline earnings is > or = to 0. See figure 3.

Scatter diagram of fuel price vs. airline earnings
Figure 3
Scatter diagram of fuel price vs. airline earnings, 2000-2017, US carriers constant 2015 dollars with least squares regression line

For completeness we also calculated a regression analysis using constant dollars for the 1990- 1999 period for US carriers and for the IATA data for 2004-2016

Case 4 - US carriers 1990-1999 – constant dollars
As in case 2, for this time period and in constant dollars, we have adequate information to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis that during this time there was a significant negative correlation between fuel prices and airline earnings, or equivalently, airlines were generally more profitable in times of low fuel prices than in times of high fuel prices. Using constant dollars did not change the results. See Figure 4

Scatter diagram of fuel price vs. airline earnings
Figure 4
Scatter diagram of fuel price vs. airline earnings, 1990-1999, US carriers constant 2015 dollars with least squares regression line

Case 5 – US carriers 2000-2019 using reported values from the FAA quadratic regression
Using a quadratic regression, we found that the best fit quadratic function was significant, but this function only explains about 10% of the variability of the profits, it is hard to draw a conclusion. However, this may suggest that when fuel prices are very low, the economy may be very weak with airlines needing to offer very low prices to attract passengers, and when fuel prices are very high, profits may be very low due to fuel prices. See figure 5 in which the red line represents the best fit quadratic equation.

a quadratic function fit to the quarterly data.
Figure 5 – a quadratic function fit to the quarterly data.

Case 6 - US carriers 2000-2019 constant dollar fitting quadratic equation
The story is the same for case 6 as for case 5, but the relationship is weaker than in case 5. See figure 6 in which the red line represents the best fit quadratic equation.

a quadratic function fit to the quarterly data in constant dollars
Figure 6 – a quadratic function fit to the quarterly data in constant dollars.

It is clear from this study that in the 1990’s the relationship between fuel prices and airline earnings was substantial, but this relationship has substantially diminished in the last 20 years or so. The table below summarizes the results of the 6 cases.

A summary of the results of the six cases
Table 1 A summary of the results of the six cases

Why might this be the case?
Several possibilities occur. Better capacity controls, better fuel related pricing, fuel hedging or some combination of these are associated with airline management actions. Each will be discussed in turn. In addition, there may be some other variable external to airline management that has so much larger an impact on airline profitability that is overwhelms any impact of fuel prices, these might include the impact of the 9-11 terrorist attacks on airline profitability in the early years of the period, the deep recession in 2007-2009 or some other unknown influence. Remember that 2020 was not included due to the severe impact on airline profits.

Capacity Controls
Airline executives are being compensated more based on return on invested capital and this leads to capacity discipline. This discipline means that airlines won’t increase capacity except to respond to increased demand. Because, in the short run, the incremental cost of operating an aircraft is relatively small compared to the fixed cost (ownership cost of the aircraft, pilot and flight attendant wages, maintenance cost, etc.) it is efficient in times of weak demand to offer seats at almost any price above the modest incremental cost of carrying that passenger. If an airline has excess capacity for the demand in any market (city pair), prices will come down to fill those seats. If airlines are undisciplined about managing capacity, they will lose money when high fuel prices add to those largely fixed costs.

Fuel Related Pricing
Airlines have been adding “fuel surcharges to air fares when fuel prices are high to justify increasing the fares they charge. These charges are a way of explaining a fare increase to passengers and cargo forwarders. However, it doesn’t seem that fuel surcharges alone could cause this diminished impact of fuel prices on airline earnings. Whatever you call the components of a fare, the price is driven by supply and demand and with excess supply in a market the price will decline to create an equilibrium that matches supply and demand. Without capacity controls, there would still be an incentive to sell seats at prices that do not cover fixed costs

Fuel hedging
Hedging a commodity amounts to purchasing that commodity in advance in a forward or futures market to protect the buyer from an increase in price at the time that commodity is needed for production of the good or service. Jet A, the fuel used in commercial aircraft, is not a traded commodity in the futures markets. Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) is very close to Jet A in chemical compound and in price movement and is traded (Unknown, 2018, p. 4). A member of an airline fuel hedging/trading team can purchase ULSD for delivery at some time in the future as a hedge against the price rising. Note that the trader can also sell in the futures market, but this would amount to speculating because the airline doesn’t need protection against lower fuel prices. Since the airline will not actually put ULSD into its fuel tanks, it will sell the contract shortly before delivery making a profit on the hedge and buying jet A on the spot (current) market. As long as the price of Jet A moves with the price of ULSD and the price increases as the time to use the fuel nears, the hedging carrier will make money on the futures contract mitigating the increased cost of filling its fuel tanks. If fuel prices decline, as they have done in the past couple of years, the hedger will lose money on his future contract while reaping the benefit of the lower price when filling his fuel tanks. He has hedged his price of fuel, to the airline’s benefit when fuel prices rise as they did in most quarters from 2003 to 2008, from 2009 to 2012 and again from 2016 to 2018, but he has cost his company when they go down by effectively locking in the earlier price.

William Farrell

William Farrell, Ph.D.
Professor of Management
Vaughn College


LGSTX Services Wins U.S. Postal Service Contract For Orlando Sort Center

Feb 8th 2021, WILMINGTON, Ohio

Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATSG) said today that its subsidiary, LGSTX Services,Inc., was recently awarded a five-year contract with the U.S. Postal Service to install and operate a Surface Transfer Center (STC) in Orlando,Fla., where postal products are sorted and consolidated for further distribution.

LGSTX Services has hired approximately 150 full-time employees at the center, with further hiring possible as product volumes increase.The company manages a similar facility for the Postal Service in Aurora, Ill., and has managed several others over the last two decades.

“To be awarded this contract for a second STC is a testament to the level of service the LGSTX team has provided,” said Jim Pradetto,president of LGSTX Services. “Our extensive history of managing these centers for the Postal Service gives us a unique advantage inunderstanding and anticipating their needs, allowing us to continually deliver the speed and operational support they require.”

Air Canada Cargo

dnata further enhances safety and efficiency in dangerous goods handling

Dubai, UAE, 4 February 2021 - Leading air services provider adopts IATA's innovative 'DG AutoCheck' solution globally

dnata has become the first global air services provider to adopt the International Air Transport Association's (IATA) Dangerous Goods AutoCheck (DG AutoCheck) platform for the acceptance of dangerous goods shipments. IATA's innovative solution will help dnata further enhance safety and improve efficiency in the handling of dangerous goods at over 20 airports globally.

Stewart Angus, dnata's Divisional Senior Vice President for International Airport Operations, said: "We are delighted to deliver this innovation to our customers. DG AutoCheck offers an innovative solution to digitally transform and automate dangerous goods acceptance checks, enabling us to ensure the highest level of safety, compliance and efficiency throughout the handling process. In addition, the platform will help us access and effectively manage valuable data which will support us in further optimising our operations.

"We continue to invest in digital technologies to provide best-in-class services to our customers."


Muhammad Al Bakri, IATA's Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East, said: "dnata's decision to adopt IATA's DG AutoCheck is great news for their customers and the cargo industry. It reinforces dnata's commitment to operating with the highest levels of safety and efficiency, particularly in relation to the carriage of dangerous goods. And their customers will benefit from the efficiency of electronic documentation and the industry will be one step closer to full digitization of the supply chain, essential for the long-term growth of the industry."

DG AutoCheck is a digital solution that facilitates the acceptance of Dangerous Goods by checking the compliance of the Shipper's Declaration for Dangerous Goods (DGD) against all relevant rules and regulations contained in the IATA Dangerous Goods Regulations (DGR). Optical character recognition technology transforms the paper DGD into electronic data. DG AutoCheck can also receive electronic Shipper's Declaration for Dangerous Goods (e-DGD). This data is then processed and verified automatically using the digital version of the DGR.

DG AutoCheck will also facilitate dnata's decision to accept or reject a shipment during the physical inspection stage by providing a pictorial representation of the package with the marking and labelling required for air transport.

A global air services provider and the trusted partner of over 300 airline customers, dnata offers ground handling, cargo and catering services at 126 airports in 19 countries. In the financial year 2019-20 dnata's customer-oriented teams handled 681,000 aircraft, moved 2.9 million tons of cargo, and uplifted more than 93 million meals.

South African Airways
Dubai forms Vaccine Logistics Alliance to expedite global distribution of COVID-19 vaccines through the emirate to developing countries

Dubai, UAE, 31 January 2021

Under the directives of Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Dubai today launched the Vaccine Logistics Alliance to speed up distribution of COVID-19 vaccines around the world through the emirate.

In support of the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) COVAX initiative and its efforts to equitably distribute two billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines in 2021, the Dubai Vaccines Logistics Alliance combines the expertise and global reach of Emirates airline with DP World’s worldwide network of ports and logistics operations, along with the infrastructure of Dubai Airports and International Humanitarian City to distribute vaccines worldwide. The distribution will particularly focus on emerging markets, where populations have been hard-hit by the pandemic, and pharmaceutical transport and logistics are challenging.

The alliance is working with a broader set of stakeholders including pharmaceutical manufacturers, forwarders, government agencies and other entities for transportation of vaccines.

Watch an introductory video about the alliance here.

HH Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, President of Dubai Civil Aviation Authority, Chairman of Dubai Airports and Chairman and Chief Executive of Emirates Airline and Group said: "We currently stand at the cusp of a historic moment with the rollout of vaccines for countering COVID-19, a pandemic that has disrupted the lives of people around the world. The UAE is leading the world in terms of rolling out the vaccine, and in line with HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s vision to facilitate a global solution for the wellbeing of communities, the Dubai Vaccine Logistics Alliance brings together key organisations to expedite the worldwide transport of urgently needed vaccines through Dubai.


Sheikh Ahmed added: "Each alliance partner brings to the table a specific and complementary set of strengths and capabilities in vaccine distribution, allowing us to build a 360-degree solution that harnesses the combined logistical and infrastructural advantages of Dubai as a hub. Together, we are able to store a large volume of vaccine doses at a time and bring in and distribute vaccines to any point around the world within 48 hours."

International Humanitarian City, the world’s largest hub for humanitarian logistics based in Dubai will be a vital partner in the Dubai Vaccine Logistics Alliance bringing its vast expertise in humanitarian logistics for aid materials such as food and medicine in markets with limited infrastructure. IHC and Emirates SkyCargo have already partnered on many humanitarian cargo flights and earlier in 2020, also signed an MoU for closer collaboration for humanitarian assistance flights.

HE Mohammed Ibrahim Al Shaibani, the Chairman of the Supreme Committee for the Supervision of International Humanitarian City, said: "Under the guidance of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, International Humanitarian City, based in Dubai, has evolved to become the largest humanitarian hub in the world, playing a pivotal role in facilitating first responses to humanitarian crises across the globe. Since the current global crisis began, the IHC has facilitated the distribution of over 80% of the WHO’s global medical response in the fight against COVID-19."

"Dubai will make sure this fight continues with the Vaccine Logistics Alliance transporting urgently needed vaccines and medical supplies to the most vulnerable communities across the world, when they need it most. We are all responsible for doing what we can to end this pandemic."

DP World, a leader in global supply chain solutions with ports, terminals and logistics operations on every continent, is joining Dubai’s initiative to transport, store and distribute COVID-19 vaccines. DP World logistics operations will facilitate the collection of vaccines from manufacturing sites in places like Europe, the US and India and deliver them to airports, seaports and dryports for onward transportation. DP World’s global, GDP-compliant, network of warehousing and distribution hubs will be used to store vaccines for time and temperature sensitive distribution to hospitals and clinics. DP World will deploy its track-and-trace technology, such as Cargoes Flow, to give real-time information on the location of shipments, and continual temperature control and monitoring. DP World’s ports and terminals, including Jebel Ali in Dubai which is one the largest in the world, will be used to ship, store and distribute medical devices, such as syringes and wipes.

Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Group Chairman and CEO, DP World, said: "Humanity will only defeat coronavirus if vaccines can be distributed everywhere. Dubai’s position as a global hub means we have a responsibility to combine our infrastructure and capabilities for this common goal. DP World has kept trade flowing throughout the pandemic ensuring countries received the vital supplies they need. We are proud to use our ports, terminals and smart logistics operations to distribute vaccines and medical devices to contribute to fighting the pandemic."

On Wednesday, DP World and UNICEF also announced a wide-ranging partnership to support the global distribution of COVID-19 vaccines and related immunisation supplies in low- and lower-middle-income countries. The new partnership - with a multi-million dollar value - is the largest to date to support UNICEF’s lead role in procuring and supplying 2 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines and auxiliary vaccination supplies on behalf of the COVAX Facility.

Emirates SkyCargo is a global leader in the air transportation of temperature sensitive pharmaceuticals, including vaccines. The air cargo carrier has over two decades of experience in transporting pharmaceuticals across the world and has developed extensive infrastructure and capabilities for the secure and rapid transportation of temperature sensitive pharmaceuticals.

"Emirates SkyCargo has taken a global leadership position during the COVID-19 pandemic for the distribution of medical supplies and PPE. We recently activated the world’s largest airside hub dedicated to the storage and global distribution of COVID-19 vaccines at Dubai South. With our modern wide-body aircraft fleet, our network reaching more than 135 cities across six continents including major pharma hubs, and our expertise in handling pharma shipments, we are well placed to work with our partners in the Dubai Vaccine Logistics Alliance in order to make sure that the COVID-19 vaccines are reaching every corner of the globe, especially cities in emerging markets," said Nabil Sultan, Emirates Divisional Senior Vice President, Cargo.

Emirates SkyCargo has over 15,000 square metres of cool chain space for pharmaceuticals across its terminals in Dubai and has already had a head start for COVID-19 vaccine logistics, having already moved COVID-19 vaccines on its flights during the month of December.

Dubai Airports, operator of Dubai International (DXB) and Dubai World Central (DWC), will be contributing to the efforts of the newly formed Dubai Vaccine Logistics Alliance by providing additional space at dedicated facilities at Dubai International (DXB). The repurposed cargo facilities will act as storage for COVID-19 vaccines that will be transported through its interlinked operations at DXB and DWC. Working closely with Emirates SkyCargo and Dubai Health Authority, Dubai Airports will ensure that the additional capacity for vaccine storage meets all the stringent regulatory guidelines for transportation of COVID-19 vaccines, and that related processes are streamlined with stakeholders and business partners.

CEO of Dubai Airports, Paul Griffiths, said; "Dubai’s central location means it is easily accessible to almost 80% of the world’s population within just four hours, making the decision to join forces and develop the world’s preeminent distribution hub a very strategic one. Over the coming months, there will undoubtedly be a major surge in demand for the efficient, safe and reliable global distribution of high volumes of COVID-19 vaccines, and we wanted to be ready to respond to and accommodate that demand. This alliance is timed perfectly and will not only support a global need, but also support the future of travel."

Turkish Cargo

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